Climate affects small bale economics

By David Horst  sandhill7@gmail.com

Paul Robbins

Paul Robbins has an environmental institute at his disposal, with many ways to measure the impact of the Midwest drought on the economy.

I have only one.

I heard Robbins, executive director of the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute for Environmental Science, speak eloquently and convincingly to the Appleton Noon Rotary about the need to determine and communicate the impact of climate change specific to Wisconsin's businesses, farms and people.

Afterwards, I offered him my measure -- the price of hay.

Due to another poor growing season, square bales of hay that hobby farmers like me were buying for $2.50 to $3 each for years, this fall were going for $6 or $7 per bale, if you could find any.

Here’s my analysis of small bale economics.

Supply was already contracting because no farmer in his right mind who needs a lot hay puts up small bales. You can use a tractor with a forklift to move large, round bales, or you stand in the burning sun, pulling small bales off of a conveyor and stacking them onto piles higher than your head.

While a dwindling number of farmers still find reason to ride the hay wagon, the demand from city folk gone country -- with a few horses, goats, alpacas or, in my case, llamas -- rises. Add to that a severely diminished yield caused by last summer's drought and you have a serious case of demand exceeding supply.

The hay economy was a small part of what Robbins said was a 1 percent loss of GDP nationally caused by the Midwestern drought. That makes it the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history. Not West Coast fires or earthquakes. Not East Coast flooding. Midwest drought.

Robbins, a geographer and anthropologist by training, shared research compiled by the Nelson Institute that shows nearly all of Wisconsin will have an average temperature in 2055 that’s six degrees warmer than in 1980, and the number days 90 degrees plus will triple. That’s enough temperature change to encourage new crop pests, change the dominant fish species in our lakes and severely restrict effluent permits for paper mills.

Has climate change got your attention yet?

By the way, that snow mixed with freezing rain? Get used to it.

“The slush belt is moving north,” Robbins said.

The scientists at UW, working through the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts, want to be more engaged with the general public, Robbins said. He wants to translate the science to make it more accessible for the public, and translate what the public is saying so the scientists get clued in.

Robbins described their approach to global warming as “no regrets.” While they see the evidence is clear that global warming is well under way, the Nelson Institute's WICCI is looking for solutions that are good for a business or organization’s efficiency, regardless of whether the boss believes Al Gore.

That’s all well and good, but, for my money, I need to know what that has to do with the price of hay in Hortonville.


NELSON INSTITUTE
The Nelson Institute, founded in 1970 and renamed in 2002 for former Wisconsin U.S. Sen. Gaylord Nelson, is dedicated to interdisciplinary environmental scholarship, education and community engagement. It includes four research centers — the Center for Climatic Research; the Center for Culture, History, and Environment; the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment; and the Land Tenure Center. www.nelson.wisc.edu